Air conditioning India is a bigger issue than global warming

Heat stress is 20 times more likely to kill an Indian than a citizen of the US. This is due to the availability of stress-reducing (not to mention comfort-inducing) technologies such as air-conditioning.

In considering potential approaches to (the likelihood of ) global warming, what should someone concerned with the fate of poor Indians be asking? Create conditions where air-conditioning is widely available, or crimp power availability in the belief that you are preventing heat from getting worse than it is.

A look at this draft paper shows that fatal heat stress begins at ambient temperatures as low as 32 degrees C. Most of India experiences these temperatures for at least 6 months a year. From this perspective, one needs to examine two alternative scenarios:

Scenario ONE

We refuse to be party to climate change talks, and purposively make power availability a national agenda. Air-conditioning, vaccine refrigeration and food preservation become ubiquitous, and save millions of lives a year. In the process, the over 100 million children who (don't) study without electricity in their homes also get an opportunity to do so. As a result, we possibly contribute to global warming, which possibly leads to our need to adapt to changes in the temperature of the earth 90 years down the line.

Scenario TWO

We send ministerial parties and scores of tax-paid hangers-on to deliberations in the world's exotic conference locations. We sign documents agreeing to decelerate energy use; then, we all spend more tax-payers' money on policing each others' contribution to this grand altruistic cause of slowing global warming. The globe, meanwhile, cools or heats depending on cosmic radiation, solar activity and perhaps man-made carbon emissions. And, while we are being 'responsible' global citizens, Indians still continue to die of heat stress at a rate that is 20 times as high as Americans, children's vaccinations don't work because the cold chain snapped, and fruit and vegetable rots while (the same unvaccinated) children suffer from malnutrition.

Tough choices!

http://www.isid.ac.in/~pu/conference/dec_10_conf/Papers/RobinBurgess.pdf

The Yin and Yang of interest rates

The Indian government has managed the inflation numbers, if not inflation. This should make it somewhat easier for the RBI to take a pause in interest rate hikes. Markets are keenly watching for signals from our central bank as it goes public with its credit policy today. Out in the daily business of buying and selling bonds, RBI has been busy providing support to bond prices, by buying them up, and keeping bond yields down - the benchmark 10-year yield is being capped at 8.1%. This is the yin, or the soft, approach to banking.


From the point of view of banks, though, there is another dynamic they have to deal with, which is the depositor. Businesses are clealy hugry for cash, and credit is growing at 23% per annum. However, depositors are signalling that bank deposits are not attractive at current rates, and the deposit growth in banks is trending at less than 15%. This is a huge gap, and it cannot be made up by equity capital alone - banks will have to raise deposit rates; and then, to retain their margins, they will have to raise loan rates. This the hard, yang reality of banking in a nation where inflation is running high.

Irrespective of whether, and when, RBI raises rates, India will have to move up the interest rate curve as long as inflation is not contained. A pause in interest rate hikes by the RBi may take some pressure off banking stocks, but this should be seen as an opportunity to exit the sector before a new slide sets in.

Rajeev Chandrashekhar's business ethics

From: Amit Saigal

Date: 10 December 2010 12:51

Subject: Open Letter to Rajeev Chandreshekhar



I sent the following message out to 5000 members of the Rock Street Journal Group on facebook this morning:



Dear Mr. Chandrasekhar,

Opened the papers this morning and read about your "Open Letter to Rattan Tata", and was highly amused. One good "public" turn deserves another, so here is my "open" letter to you, you dishonest fuck.

I hope you remember floating an "internet" company during the dotcom boom of the late nineties. It was called OYEINDIA.com

Even had very nice T-shirts and everything, and lots of nice people working for it, some of whom are still friends. No doubt, you thought you you were going to make a quick few million and cash in on the internet boom. Oyeindia co-sponsored Great Indian Rock Festival in 2001 for 16 lacs. And promptly bounced cheques, and then gave me an awesome runaround for two years.

Sir, not having shagged a family member of the BPL group to inherit any business, and having worked very very hard to create Rock Street Journal, Great Indian Rock etc. This was a huge sum of money for me. Can you possibly have the decency to pay up? with interest please?

I had totally forgotten about your insignificant life, till I saw in the papers today that you are now some BJP bigwig (obviously all your business ventures have gone down the tube (BPL? anyone?), and you have found a political party to suit your personality it seems).

So please look into your murky past, before you level innuendo against someone like Rattan Tata. You dont even aspire to be in the same league as the digested meal that comes out of Rattan Tatas bottom every morning.

cheers!

amit Saigal